The Last Exile

Binyamin Netanyahu is a hard political figure for North Americans to view and understand in an Israeli context. He is eloquent and a masterful speaker in English and he knows all the right things to say which pulls at the Diaspora heart strings in North America. As such, its always a surprise to North Americans to learn just how little well regarded he is in Israel. I try to tell people but I get poop-poohed on a regular basis. My words mean little when measured against their perceptions from viewing Netanyahu on the regular Anglo television talk circuits.

Watching Bibi Netanyahu after the Israeli elections last winter I came away with the distinct impression that Bibi was stuck trying to correct his mistakes made during his last attempt at running the country rather than building on the new realities. While I still believe he is giving far too much weight to the issues which brought down his former government but I may seriously have to reconsider that I have misjudged Bibi’s learning curve.

Reading the daily news reports of the anti-settlement freeze I was kept asking myself; how could Netanyahu not know this would be the response to his self-imposed freeze on construction and what does he gain by it?

One of the major fall-outs from the Sharon Disengagements from the Gaza Strip, excluding the obvious escalation of rocket attacks, showed the Israeli public the very real and painful consequences to Israeli citizens when the government expels them. If anything this ensures that any future withdrawals will be met with great resistance. The continued plight of the Gush Katif refugees illustrates a daily painful lesson. No one would willingly chose to take on that mantle without a fight for their lives.

Reading the reports in the last few days I was suddenly struck the nagging idea that perhaps Netanyahu deliberately made the building freeze far more restrictive and far-ranging than any Israeli administration had before in order to provoke the current Israeli response. Of course, if the response was a little slow from the Israeli street Bibi knew he could count on the character of Ehud Barak who wouldn’t fail him. Barak and his far left politics are unable to resist an opportunity to lash out against Israeli settlers and thereby would guarantee a response from the Israeli street.

There is no doubt in my mind that the whole building freeze notion was born through the misguided and naive efforts of Obama Administration and pressure was brought to bear against Netanyahu. No doubt he protested that a building freeze would endanger his coalition and create civil strife on the Israeli street. The bubble the Obama Administration operates in probably discounted Netanyahu’s warnings as the ravings of a far-right policy hawk and not a realistic evaluation of the Israeli sentiment.

This morning I came across this update at Ynet News update in which Likud MK Danny Danon makes a rather remarkable statement about an encounter with Bibi which gives weight to my suspicious. Ynet News

Netanyahu said to the members of Knesset, “We are a in a continual struggle over the map of Israel.” He also said that he is impressed by the determination of some faction members to continue advocating for settlement in the West Bank. “You have to go out and protest against me. Then we’ll finish it early,” said Netanyahu to the MKs. (Attila Somfalvi)

Keep in mind this rather interesting statement Netanyahu made last Sunday. Ynet News

“Even if Abu Mazen (PA President Mahmoud Abbas) will come in another eight months with the message ‘Peace Now,’ we will start building as before. The cabinet’s decision has a deadline,” said Netanyahu in the weekly cabinet meeting.

This still leaves the question of what Bibi gains and I sincerely doubt he is gunning for the ‘good-will’ of the Obama administration. He is far too pragmatic a man and too seasoned an Israeli politician to have made a bargain without getting something solid in return. If my suspicious are correct than whatever Bibi bargained for should come to come to light within the next ten months.