Poll Time Foolishness in Israel
Ynet News is reporting that if an election was held today Kadima would trump Likud except Likud would gain 2 more seats and there be a right-wing coalition majority in the Knesset. Ynet claims the pollsters are blaming the perilous Likud loss on the frayed relationship between Israel and the US. Really, for real, and I quote.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would lose to centrist Kadima if elections were held today, according to an opinion poll published on Friday by Yedioth Ahronot newspaper.
According to the poll, Likud – currently the coalition leader – would increase its representation in the Knesset to 29 seats, up from 27, but would trail after Kadima by three seats. The paper linked the shift against Likud to frayed relations between Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama over Israel’s continuing settlement expansion in the West Bank, but did not present findings on Netanyahu’s personal popularity.
But Ynet isn’t done with this foolishness:
It said a majority of 64 percent felt that the current coalition’s policies “do not represent” their wishes.
The poll, conducted by Mina Zemah and Dahaf Institute said Kadima, which currently has 28 seats in the Knesset, would extend its lead to 32 seats if voters were balloted now. The poll predicted that right-wing and nationalist parties would maintain a majority in the Knesset with 63 seats, down from 65 seats.
So whose the real loser? The Labor party.
According to the poll, the Labor Party headed by Defense Minister Ehud Barak would see its representation fall to eight seats, down from 13 seats.
In summation, Israeli Labor voters are dissatisfied with the Israeli Labor party and would break for Kadima which has nothing to due with the state of relations between Israel-America but why let that get in the way of a good spin?
Now you know why polls in Israel are considered notoriously unreliable but if we use this projection I contend it does suggest the Israeli public rather than being casting blame and seeking to punish Bibi for the state of Israeli-American relations supports their Prime Minister in this dispute.
In reality, if an election was held tomorrow I would expect to see a loss for Meretz and Labour breaking Kadima’s way. I would also expect to see Kadima’s gain somewhat off-set by right wing Kadima member’s heading to the Likud party owing to Livni’s abdismal performance as opposition leader. If Bibi stands strong against American malfeasance I would expect to see Likud regain some of the disaffected Likud voters who drifted to Israel Beitneu’s way during the last election.
Now matter how you try to dress it up Israeli voters while fractionous are throughly fractiousness in a ‘rightwing’ way but all you lefties take heart; the Israeli right is still left of the Canadian NDP.
Disaffected Likud voters probably went to Habayit Hayehudi and Ichud Leumi. The media lies and slanders about Lieberman notwithstanding, Israel Beitenu is a more centrist/secular party. Don’t forget they were part of the previous Kadima-led coalition.
Zee, I agree with you to a point – that disaffected Dati Likudniks probably when to Ichud Leumi & Habyit Hayehudi – especially with those who were disgusted with Bibi’s antics over Feiglin. Lieberman did better than expected and he appealed to a great many in Likud who wanted action and worried Bibi would cave (again) if given a fuller mandate – remember last election the rockets were falling regularly on the Negev communities. Lieberman had the tough talk rhetoric during the rocket seige and it was from this group Lieberman picked up votes from. His base is relatively small but my best guest would be to suggest it will be these voters who will drift Likud’s way in this poll – call it a case of buyer’s remorse. The average “Labor” voter who is discouraged with Barak won’t cast for Likud so where is the increase number of mandates coming from if not from Israel Beitneu? I don’t see any of the Dati who voted for nationalist party’s changing.
I think Likud will pick up votes from Kadima and a few from Labor. I also think those would be offset by Likud voters leaving to support right wing parties, which the Likud no longer is. I know a few of lifelong Labor supporters who voted Likud in the last election.
In the previous election, amongst all the zionist parties, Likud had the largest increase in arab votes. Maybe that will be their newest constituency
(Ok, it was only a 2% increase)
BTW, the only other zionist party to see an increase in arab votes was the supposedly “racist, anti-arab” Israel Beitenu party.