The Last Exile

Daniel Pipes says something I have been suggests something I have been trying to tell people which is simply this. Any Israeli attack will be lethal, devastating and completely unconventional. He hints at it in this interview.

EMQ: How should Israelis feel about this?

DP: I think it’s realistic for the Israelis to attack and do real damage. Now, what constitutes success, I’m not exactly sure. There are many, many questions. If I were [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin]Netanyahu, I would say to [U.S. President Barack] Obama, “Why don’t you take out the Iranian nukes? Or else we will And we will not do it by trying to fly planes across Turkey and Syria or Jordan or Saudi Arabia. We will do it from submarine-based, tactical nuclear weapons. You don’t want that; we don’t want that; but that’s the way we can do this job for sure. You do it your way so we don’t have to escalate to that.” That would be a way of applying pressure. There are so many details which I’m not privy to. But that would be my kind of approach if I were the Israelis.

I have a confession to make. I was war-gaming this very scenario. Of course, the scenario I played out was an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The great thing about war-gaming software is most of the ‘knowns’ of Israeli and Iranian weapons capacity/forces are already plugged in so I did not spend time combing the internet or journals trying to come up with figures and capacity.

Eight times I tried the traditional approach to attacking Iran via the IAF, and eight times I crashed and burned…along with most of the Middle East as the ripples of original battle spiraled and spread ever outward. I almost gave up until I realized some of my assumptions were wrong.

Firstly, I had to redefine what would make the mission a success from the Israeli point of view and then I had to design a scenario where all of my goals would met.

Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities is just infrastructure and while it might take time to replace, an Iranian government with the ‘will’ to pursue a nuclear program will do so regardless of cost. The best case scenario in a traditional attack leaves Iran’s program mostly in tact and pushed back a few years until the infrastructure is replaced. Then we are back at square one – again. The true wealth of Iran’s nuclear program lies in its’ investment in human capital. Maybe 10% of any given population is smart enough to become a trained nuclear physicist and out of that 10% you would be lucky to have 2% who actually have the desire to become a nuclear physicist. Then it takes time and extensive training. The type of human capital we are talking about is far more precious and any attack would have to wipe out the infrastructure as well as the reality of available pool of human capital.

There are 9 suspected nuclear sites spread throughout the country and buried deep beneath the ground. The logistics of getting there and out again are horrendous and probably constitute a true ‘hail mary’ pass – not to mention there is no guarantee the actual infrastructure buried deep within the ground can actually be harmed which means huge civilian loss of life – potentially all for nought.

So how to do it? I figured it out and ran my scenario through a beta program. It worked and mission was a success…and the Middle East didn’t implode. All the fighting was over in eight days. After I ran my scenario there were a number of side benefits. Iran’s ability to export terror and mayhem was completely destroyed. Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas were completely left without a patron and the Israeli state lived to celebrate another year.

I got rid of the notion of the Israeli air force spearing heading the attack using their planes and instead chose to launch my attack via the Israeli dolphin class submarines and I utilized the Shavit space station vehicle – nor did I use conventional warheads but nuclearized my war heads on the Jericho III missiles. The Jericho III missiles ranged are rumoured to be rather extensive. Iran became literally a wasteland with no communications or leadership left intact. The survivors were too busy just trying to survive getting out of Dodge – let alone regroup and coordinate an attack against the Israeli state.

What about retaliation via Syria and Hezbollah? Well, that’s what took up the other 7 days but you have to remember without Iranian patronage these regimes will be busy fighting for survival in the reality of the new middle east. Assad might be a crazy bastard but he wants to continue to rule Syria so he is not about to go mano-to mano with the Israeli state – which has just nuked his patron. I suspect Nasrallah will suddenly start to speak very softly as well.

Sure there will be an outcry in the UN and lots of condemnation all around even as the Gulf Arab states breath a deep sigh of relief. Besides an Israeli diplomatic message to most of the neighbours who start to make to much fuss along the lines of – ‘who wants to be next?’ should quell their thirst for Israeli blood. That UN Security veto – well, if the Israelis pull it off the Chinese will be very interested in making the Israelis their new best friends. The Chinese are motivated and interested in acquiring a space program their own and the Israelis have just pulled off a success attack based on their own naval and space station vehicle. Russia, Russia stands to make a fortune and usher in a new level of prosperity by becoming the primo European energy supplier. Can we say ‘hegemony’!

Everyone else will be too busy helping working to alleviate the humanitarian disaster the Iranian neighbour states will be faced with as survivors struggle in seeking refuge. Yes, the Europeans will make a fuss but America will be circumspect. On the one hand, any American leadership will be appalled beyond the pale but most of the world will believe the Israelis had the go-ahead via POTUS. If the Americans are too strident publicly in its’ denials; it will work to defeat any advantage gained out of the situation and a huge major loss of face or credibility in the Arab and Muslim world.

And Israel, well Israelis may have to hunker down for a decade or so being the world’s pariah state, but eventually things will turn around. Israel is well on the way of becoming an energy independent state with its electric cars system, solar energy homes and extraction of oil from shale to need too much from the rest of the world. In fact, with the Israelis on the verge of so many cutting edge techniques and technology the rest of us cannot afford to keep the Israelis in Coventry for too long. Third world states the world over need exactly the kind of technological advantages and water filtration systems which have made Israel a techno-marvel. There will always be alliances to be pursued.

At some point in the near future an Israeli prime minister and his cabinet will be faced with this very decision. It all depends which way they role the dice. Take a chance and live with a nuclear armed Iranian state or unleash devastation on a scale unparalleled in the history of human warfare. Eighty million lives against 7 million Jewish ones. Who to pick? I know who I would pick but I cannot speak for Israeli prime ministers.

But here is some grist for thought. The current Israeli Chief of Staff is being very unceremoniously replaced in February 2011 and it was a very surprising decision. Ashkenazi is a popular and effective commander but it may well have been precipitated by Ashkenazi’s rumoured objection to an attack against the Iranian state.