The Last Exile

Daniel Pipes says something I have been suggests something I have been trying to tell people which is simply this. Any Israeli attack will be lethal, devastating and completely unconventional. He hints at it in this interview.

EMQ: How should Israelis feel about this?

DP: I think it’s realistic for the Israelis to attack and do real damage. Now, what constitutes success, I’m not exactly sure. There are many, many questions. If I were [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin]Netanyahu, I would say to [U.S. President Barack] Obama, “Why don’t you take out the Iranian nukes? Or else we will And we will not do it by trying to fly planes across Turkey and Syria or Jordan or Saudi Arabia. We will do it from submarine-based, tactical nuclear weapons. You don’t want that; we don’t want that; but that’s the way we can do this job for sure. You do it your way so we don’t have to escalate to that.” That would be a way of applying pressure. There are so many details which I’m not privy to. But that would be my kind of approach if I were the Israelis.

I have a confession to make. I was war-gaming this very scenario. Of course, the scenario I played out was an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The great thing about war-gaming software is most of the ‘knowns’ of Israeli and Iranian weapons capacity/forces are already plugged in so I did not spend time combing the internet or journals trying to come up with figures and capacity.

Eight times I tried the traditional approach to attacking Iran via the IAF, and eight times I crashed and burned…along with most of the Middle East as the ripples of original battle spiraled and spread ever outward. I almost gave up until I realized some of my assumptions were wrong.

Firstly, I had to redefine what would make the mission a success from the Israeli point of view and then I had to design a scenario where all of my goals would met.

Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities is just infrastructure and while it might take time to replace, an Iranian government with the ‘will’ to pursue a nuclear program will do so regardless of cost. The best case scenario in a traditional attack leaves Iran’s program mostly in tact and pushed back a few years until the infrastructure is replaced. Then we are back at square one – again. The true wealth of Iran’s nuclear program lies in its’ investment in human capital. Maybe 10% of any given population is smart enough to become a trained nuclear physicist and out of that 10% you would be lucky to have 2% who actually have the desire to become a nuclear physicist. Then it takes time and extensive training. The type of human capital we are talking about is far more precious and any attack would have to wipe out the infrastructure as well as the reality of available pool of human capital.

There are 9 suspected nuclear sites spread throughout the country and buried deep beneath the ground. The logistics of getting there and out again are horrendous and probably constitute a true ‘hail mary’ pass – not to mention there is no guarantee the actual infrastructure buried deep within the ground can actually be harmed which means huge civilian loss of life – potentially all for nought.

So how to do it? I figured it out and ran my scenario through a beta program. It worked and mission was a success…and the Middle East didn’t implode. All the fighting was over in eight days. After I ran my scenario there were a number of side benefits. Iran’s ability to export terror and mayhem was completely destroyed. Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas were completely left without a patron and the Israeli state lived to celebrate another year.

I got rid of the notion of the Israeli air force spearing heading the attack using their planes and instead chose to launch my attack via the Israeli dolphin class submarines and I utilized the Shavit space station vehicle – nor did I use conventional warheads but nuclearized my war heads on the Jericho III missiles. The Jericho III missiles ranged are rumoured to be rather extensive. Iran became literally a wasteland with no communications or leadership left intact. The survivors were too busy just trying to survive getting out of Dodge – let alone regroup and coordinate an attack against the Israeli state.

What about retaliation via Syria and Hezbollah? Well, that’s what took up the other 7 days but you have to remember without Iranian patronage these regimes will be busy fighting for survival in the reality of the new middle east. Assad might be a crazy bastard but he wants to continue to rule Syria so he is not about to go mano-to mano with the Israeli state – which has just nuked his patron. I suspect Nasrallah will suddenly start to speak very softly as well.

Sure there will be an outcry in the UN and lots of condemnation all around even as the Gulf Arab states breath a deep sigh of relief. Besides an Israeli diplomatic message to most of the neighbours who start to make to much fuss along the lines of – ‘who wants to be next?’ should quell their thirst for Israeli blood. That UN Security veto – well, if the Israelis pull it off the Chinese will be very interested in making the Israelis their new best friends. The Chinese are motivated and interested in acquiring a space program their own and the Israelis have just pulled off a success attack based on their own naval and space station vehicle. Russia, Russia stands to make a fortune and usher in a new level of prosperity by becoming the primo European energy supplier. Can we say ‘hegemony’!

Everyone else will be too busy helping working to alleviate the humanitarian disaster the Iranian neighbour states will be faced with as survivors struggle in seeking refuge. Yes, the Europeans will make a fuss but America will be circumspect. On the one hand, any American leadership will be appalled beyond the pale but most of the world will believe the Israelis had the go-ahead via POTUS. If the Americans are too strident publicly in its’ denials; it will work to defeat any advantage gained out of the situation and a huge major loss of face or credibility in the Arab and Muslim world.

And Israel, well Israelis may have to hunker down for a decade or so being the world’s pariah state, but eventually things will turn around. Israel is well on the way of becoming an energy independent state with its electric cars system, solar energy homes and extraction of oil from shale to need too much from the rest of the world. In fact, with the Israelis on the verge of so many cutting edge techniques and technology the rest of us cannot afford to keep the Israelis in Coventry for too long. Third world states the world over need exactly the kind of technological advantages and water filtration systems which have made Israel a techno-marvel. There will always be alliances to be pursued.

At some point in the near future an Israeli prime minister and his cabinet will be faced with this very decision. It all depends which way they role the dice. Take a chance and live with a nuclear armed Iranian state or unleash devastation on a scale unparalleled in the history of human warfare. Eighty million lives against 7 million Jewish ones. Who to pick? I know who I would pick but I cannot speak for Israeli prime ministers.

But here is some grist for thought. The current Israeli Chief of Staff is being very unceremoniously replaced in February 2011 and it was a very surprising decision. Ashkenazi is a popular and effective commander but it may well have been precipitated by Ashkenazi’s rumoured objection to an attack against the Iranian state.

According to this Toronto Star article the Canadian Military is running into staffing issues.

OTTAWA–The military has put up to a dozen international missions on the chopping block as it struggles with a massive personnel shortage, the Toronto Star has learned.

From a five-soldier team training the Kosovo Security Force to the single officer monitoring the 1974 ceasefire in Cyprus, to the 30 personnel deployed on peacekeeping operations in Sudan, all is up for review as Canada juggles the demands of Afghanistan, the Olympics, and the G8 and G20 meetings of world leaders this summer.

“Political will exists to accept downsizing or deactivation of missions whose effects are no longer required, are not meeting their intent, or who can no longer be conducted owing to force generation pressures,” according to an internal report last year laying out the criteria for continuing or cutting the international deployments.

The personnel pinch was first identified by Gen. Rick Hillier, then chief of defence staff, in May 2008. He warned that the Canadian Forces would need to “continuously and ruthlessly rationalize our operational demands.”

So I have a suggestion to help ease the personnel crunch; immediately end Operation Proteus. By this time most of you are probably scratching your heads wondering what the hell Operation Proteus is. I know I was. I never even knew the Canadian Armed Forces had any kind of join venture on the go with the Palestinians until I read the most ridiculous and overall butt-ignorant editorial penned for the St. Catherine’s’ Standard. However, the editorial did allude to a Canadian operational mission with the Palestinian security forces and before I wrote the whole thing off as stuff and non-sense; I thought I should do a little digging.

Operation Proteus is probably the least publicly flaunted operation the Canadian Armed Forces are involved with. Of course, it would probably hurt the current Conservative government’s “Jew-cred” if the Conservatives started to openly tout Operations Proteus rather than doing it on the sly QT. Nothing like using the Canadian army to train the Palestinian security forces to become better trained terrorists police officers. So don’t expect to see this on Sandy Crux’s list of the Harper’s Governments Accomplishments.

Simply put; Operation Proteus is the Canadian military’s contribution for training the Palestinian Security Forces – yes, we are training these guys who with frightening regularity often go postal and run amuck killing Israelis.

I bet you thought only the Americans and Euroweenies were the only ones dumb enough to train (ahem) security forces of the Palestinian thug-a-crats and sundry thieves who run riot through the billions given to the Palestinian Authority.

Yes, this is the same Palestinian Authority who first set in motion the infamous ‘jobs-for-guns’ program to al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade members to ‘lay down their guns’ for jobs in the Palestinian security forces.

Heaven knows, without the Palestinian Security Forces propping up one of the most innately corrupt gang of thugs and thieves the Palestinians have ever seen – what chance will any Palestinian know what it is like to enjoy justice without having to bride police, the judge or jury?

Furthermore, I would love to know what exactly is the Canadian military’s vetting process to ensure they are not training known terrorists? Although, I wouldn’t be surprised to learn the Canadian Armed Forces defers all Palestinian candidate decisions to the Palestinian Security Forces’ leadership.

So now the next time Palestinian Police decide to lynch a couple of directionally challenged Israeli reservists – or when a Palestinian security force personnel goes postal or even when a Palestinian military courts carries out the legal execution for the capital crime of selling land to a Jew; we call all sit back in safe and smug in Canada knowing how our government and army did its part. But for me, I am just sick about it.

At the Jerusalem Conference, a Likud MK member has made a few waves for this suggestion during a panel discussion Arutz Sheva:

The biggest headline of the session was provided by MK Tzipi Hotovely of the Likud, who is known for her nationalist views – yet came out in support of granting Israeli citizenship to the Arabs of Judea and Samaria. She began by agreeing that the idea of a Palestinian state is “dead and buried, a passing illusion. They don’t want a state, as we saw in 2000 and 2008 when they rejected far-reaching Israeli proposals. From the Israeli side, as well, Ehud Barak told me that he has no dispute with Benny Begin about Palestinian intentions – meaning that he, too, knows that they do not accept or suffice with the idea of a state. The same is true around the world…”

“But the bad news,” she said, “is what is happening here in Israel. For too many years, we have been passive and just let things go… I respect Benny Begin, but I disagree that we must simply continue not to decide. We must be pro-active in Judea/Samaria as we are in Jerusalem and in the Golan. The international community must not be allowed to be the main player; for too many years we have given the world too much importance; we have to know what we ourselves want.” 

“An important question is, What do we do with the Palestinians? They are people, a hostile element – what do we do with them? We must first apply Israeli law to Judea and Samaria – I don’t say we must annex it, because it’s already ours – and this will help the 300,000 Jewish residents there; they are the only ones currently living under occupation. But what about the Arabs there? That’s the hard question. But all the alternatives are worse than what I’m about to say: We should consider giving them citizenship – I’m not referring to Gaza – on condition that we legislate a Basic Law that Israel remains a Jewish state.

This reminds me of a conversation I had on the back end with Dr. Dawg which is why I am posting it. Hotovely isn’t the only Likud member who has proposed such a thing. I had a post up last March of a You Tube video showing a young Bibi Netanyahu debating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict wherein he made a rather startling statement suggesting the Palestinians should be given Israeli citizenship. Unfortunately, the video was pulled – and rather quickly I might add.

While barken dogs can howl at the idea Hotovely is right about one thing; all the alternatives are worse than giving Palestinians in Judea and Samaria Israeli citizenship. You can talk till the cows come home about alternative solutions to the ‘two-state solution’ but how do you force any Arab country to accept sovereignty over the Palestinians when no one clearly wants them? Can Israel afford to evict 300,000 citizens and resettle them in post-67 Israel? And then, how do you stop the current Israeli infrastructure and economy from imploding under the strain? If a Palestinian state was established in Judea and Samaria; how long before the attacks begin anew when the international welfare dries up? Do you kill the Palestinians down to the last man, woman and child or just expel them…but the question is always where do you expel them to…if no one wants them.

Go ahead and discuss the idea among yourselves but I suspect the biggest opponents would be none other than the so-called leadership of the Palestinian Authority who have more than a passing interest in keeping this conflict liquid and flowing with funds to line their pockets for the ‘resistance’.

Who does not care about Michael Jackson’s funeral?

Good thing I am not one to hold my breath otherwise I would die from asphyxiation while waiting for Shas and a couple of MK’s from the Pensioners Party of Israel to withdraw from the Kadima coalition government. Why would I be holding my breath? Well, both parties have publicly stated to withdraw from the Kadima coalition if status talks on the question of dividing Jerusalem occurred with the Palestinian Authority.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting these talks are currently underway in “secret”.

A senior PA official in Ramallah told the Jerusalem Post on Saturday that the Palestinian negotiating team headed by former PA prime minister Ahmed Qurei had been holding secret talks with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and other government officials in the past few weeks. A spokesperson from Livni’s office said that he was “not allowed to respond to anything going on in the [negotiating] room.”

“The main progress has been achieved during the secret talks, particularly on the issue of Jerusalem. Today we can say that Israel is prepared to withdraw from almost all the Arab neighborhoods and villages in Jerusalem. Israel is prepared to redivide Jerusalem and this is a positive development,” the Ramallah official said. “The negotiations are moving too slowly,” he said. “There are still too many difficulties, although one can say that some progress has been achieved.”

Non-coalition members of the Israeli Knesset have been calling for Shas and Pensioner’s MK’s to make good on their word. (Jerusalem Post)

Politicians on the Right called upon Shas to leave the government immediately on Sunday after The Jerusalem Post revealed that secret talks were taking place with the Palestinians in which Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had made concessions on Jerusalem.
(…)
“The cat is out of the bag,” National Religious Party chairman Zevulun Orlev said. “The fact that the Olmert government is not telling the truth about the negotiations with the Palestinians has been revealed. Shas will no longer be able to say they didn’t know. Even if the prime minister isn’t telling them the truth, they can thank The Jerusalem Post for revealing it to them. I hope Shas keeps its promise and leaves the government that is dividing Jerusalem.”

Today the Jerusalem Post is reporting Shas is waiting for confirmation from the Prime Minister’s office that discussions with the Palestinian Authority has in fact been taking place on the question of Jerusalem, but even better, Shas has just pushed their red line in the sand further south.

Yishai will meet Olmert when the prime minister returns from Germany and will try to find out whether Livni “is the conductor and is acting on her own volition or whether she is being directed from above”, Atias told Army Radio. “We cannot disregard what is happening. We cannot bury our heads in the sand.” On Monday Yishai indicated that his party’s days in the government were numbered, due to Post’s story that the Palestinian and Israeli negotiating teams were conducting secret talks on the future of Jerusalem.

Yishai told reporters who attended his faction’s weekly meeting that he would speak about the story in Sunday’s paper with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni. He had not spoken to either one by press time and the Olmert associates he did reach downplayed the report. “I will check the story and if it’s true, Shas will leave the government,” Yishai told the Post.

Yishai also issued a new threat that any diplomatic progress on any issue while Kassams fall on Sderot could lead to the party’s departure from the coalition. Yishai escalated his warning beyond previous threats, which focused solely on Jerusalem. But Yishai’s threat to leave over the Post story was seen as more serious, because it applied to negotiations that have already taken place, while the new threat deals with potential future talks.

Yishai wrote a letter to Cabinet Secretary Ovad Yehezkel requesting that all decisions about what Israel should negotiate be made in the forum of seven ministers that met regularly during the Second Lebanon War. He postponed a visit to Jerusalem’s controversial Har Homa neighborhood until Thursday, when he will be joined by MKs from the right wing National Union-National Religious Party.

Sources in Shas said the Post story added to what they said was already tremendous pressure on the party to leave the coalition sooner rather than later. A Shas MK complained privately that he felt increasingly uncomfortable with the party remaining in a government that was conducting negotiations that he believed would leave Israel “naked” without key strategic assets. An official close to Olmert expressed confidence that Shas would remain in the coalition. The official vowed to do everything possible to keep the party satisfied.

For those who do not understand the ins and outs of Israel political parties. Shas is a religious party which is often been accused of being eminently bribable. So when a close official to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert expresses confidence Shas would remain in the coalition – it can be construed as Kadima will meet any financial demand Shas makes.

But dividing Jerusalem is a tricky thing for any religious Jew to bend their mind around. Jerusalem was a gift given not just to the current generation of Jews living but to all future generation of Jews yet to come. And who has the right to barter away the birthright from those who are not yet evem born?