The Last Exile

I will admit I wanted Canadian forces completely withdrawn from Afghanistan since 2006. I knew the conflict was ‘unwinnable’ unless the Canadian government made the decision to annex Afghanistan and treat the country as another province of Canada. I was relieved when the pull-out was announced but disturbed at the high number of ‘military’ trainers left behind after the officially pull-out. Every time I hear ‘military trainer’ my mind goes all Vietnamish and what a dog’s breakfast that war was.

A week ago the elected Prime Minister of Afghanistan announced that men were fundamental and women were secondary….so I am more than a little perturbed when I read Peter Mackay, as Canadian Minister of Defense, believes Canada must remain steadfast to its commitment of training Afghani troops until 2014…of course, what no one has actually asked MacKay; is if this valuable training we are providing to Afghanis troops will play a role in the continuing oppression of Afghani women.

My money says it will and we should get out now. Lending a military hand in the oppression of women and children are not promoting Canadian values.

And it has nothing to do with Israel and every thing to do with the physical and sexual abuse of foreign domestic workers – especially those of workers of colour – within the Arab world.

It is all too routine in the Arab world, but the real crime is, how it is ignored or tolerated by the West only because no Jews are involved. This video is from Lebanon, and shot by a few brave Lebanese souls trying to institute change…The woman in this video was running away from her ‘employer’ but is caught and beaten just outside the Ethiopian embassy. It is believed she was running to the embassy in an attempt at taking refuge from her employer.

The physical abuse of foreign domestic workers is so all pervasive in Lebanon that a number of countries have passed legislation forbidding their citizens from taking jobs as domestic workers in Lebanon.

CNN carried a documentary on the plight of foreign domestic workers In Lebanon who are choosing suicide in alarming numbers as their only viable way to escape abuse.

As the Canadian Robocall political scandal unfolds I am struck by the weirdest sense of déjà vu. I realize déjà vu can be characterized as ‘weird’ phenomena in the first place, but this sense of ‘déjà vu’ is downright Nixonian. The Prime Minister and I are pretty much the same age, and we were both young and living in Toronto during the US Watergate years.

I am fairly certain he could not have missed it, since I wanted to miss it, and I tried to miss it, but I never could manage to escape it. In those days, Toronto only had a handful of television stations whose broadcast signal was strong enough to receive on a television set and the majority of the stations on our television dials were American.

During the Watergate Senate hearings, the American stations would frequently interrupt their regular broadcasts in order to carry the hearings ‘live’ – much to the crushing joy of my young heart. At lunch, when inclement weather forced me to eat inside, I was often stuck watching John Dean’s testimony rather than the Flintstones or Bewitched. All of which makes me wonder, if Stephen Harper is the Canadian Richard Nixon, where and who, is Harper’s John Dean?

It is so downright eerie watching Stephen Harper deny any Conservative wrongdoing when he knows very well how well that went worked for Tricky Dickie – and I must say, it doesn’t seem to be working out all that well for Stevie either. In fact, if my memory has entirely failed me, I think even John Dean once tried to make a case that the Republicans broke into the democratic party headquarters to look for evidence of illegal party ‘pay-offs’.

See, even blaming the victim comes out of Nixon’s bag of tricks or making calls sliming your opposition is –
And I quote (National Post) –

Ah, yes, sliming Irwin Cotler – just because the ‘cons’ cannot beat him in a fair political fight is just as dirty and disgrace when Canadians Conservatives do it as it was when Republicans engaged in Nixon’s bag of dirty tricks. Odd, how both Harper and I could watch Watergate scandal unfold and take two entirely different lessons from watching Nixon’s fall from grace.

NB; Saskboy and Dr. Dawg have fairly good round-ups and updates.

So far, a lack of snow and +Celisus temperature has been the big weather story for winter in the Centre of the Universe. Currently, slushie snow flakes are falling and melting once the snow hits the ground. The weekend forecast calls for more or less mild temepratures this weekend…so I was quite amused by this Jerusalem Post headline and picture.

It is just so cute watching Israelis learning to be Canadian.

*(Photo by Eran Glick)

The Financial Times is carrying a report suggesting the Americans are very resistant against an Israeli offensive against the Iranian nuclear facility…and suggest part of the resistance is based on the futility of wiping out the ‘human capital’ – which makes up the backbone of any nuclear program. Way back when, I suggested much the same thing…any Israeli offensive has to address the risk of the human capital of the Iranian nuclear program. I am not surprised the Americans are resistant…the US Army War College published a position paper in 2005 suggesting the US could easily live with a nuclear armed Iran. I blogged about that too at the time.

At the risk of repeating myself, I am reproducing the post I wrote in 2010 since very little has really changed but I would add one small request of TPTB….if there is to be a war – I’m praying the Israelis won’t start it until after my plane lands in Tel Aviv. Once I am Eretz Yisrael…its all good.

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Daniel Pipes says something I have been suggests something I have been trying to tell people which is simply this. Any Israeli attack will be lethal, devastating and completely unconventional. He hints at it in this interview.

EMQ: How should Israelis feel about this?

DP: I think it’s realistic for the Israelis to attack and do real damage. Now, what constitutes success, I’m not exactly sure. There are many, many questions. If I were [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin]Netanyahu, I would say to [U.S. President Barack] Obama, “Why don’t you take out the Iranian nukes? Or else we will And we will not do it by trying to fly planes across Turkey and Syria or Jordan or Saudi Arabia. We will do it from submarine-based, tactical nuclear weapons. You don’t want that; we don’t want that; but that’s the way we can do this job for sure. You do it your way so we don’t have to escalate to that.” That would be a way of applying pressure. There are so many details which I’m not privy to. But that would be my kind of approach if I were the Israelis.

I have a confession to make. I was war-gaming this very scenario. Of course, the scenario I played out was an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. The great thing about war-gaming software is most of the ‘knowns’ of Israeli and Iranian weapons capacity/forces are already plugged in so I did not spend time combing the internet or journals trying to come up with figures and capacity.

Eight times I tried the traditional approach to attacking Iran via the IAF, and eight times I crashed and burned…along with most of the Middle East as the ripples of original battle spiraled and spread ever outward. I almost gave up until I realized some of my assumptions were wrong.

Firstly, I had to redefine what would make the mission a success from the Israeli point of view and then I had to design a scenario where all of my goals would met.

Attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities is just infrastructure and while it might take time to replace, an Iranian government with the ‘will’ to pursue a nuclear program will do so regardless of cost. The best case scenario in a traditional attack leaves Iran’s program mostly in tact and pushed back a few years until the infrastructure is replaced. Then we are back at square one – again.

The true wealth of Iran’s nuclear program lies in its’ investment in human capital. Maybe 10% of any given population is smart enough to become a trained nuclear physicist and out of that 10% you would be lucky to have 2% who actually have the desire to become a nuclear physicist. Then it takes time and extensive training. The type of human capital we are talking about is far more precious and any attack would have to wipe out the infrastructure as well as the reality of available pool of human capital.

There are 9 suspected nuclear sites spread throughout the country and buried deep beneath the ground. The logistics of getting there and out again are horrendous and probably constitute a true ‘hail mary’ pass – not to mention there is no guarantee the actual infrastructure buried deep within the ground can actually be harmed which means huge civilian loss of life – potentially all for nought.

So how to do it? I figured it out and ran my scenario through a beta program. It worked and mission was a success…and the Middle East didn’t implode. All the fighting was over in eight days. After I ran my scenario there were a number of side benefits. Iran’s ability to export terror and mayhem was completely destroyed. Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas were completely left without a patron and the Israeli state lived to celebrate another year.

I got rid of the notion of the Israeli air force spearing heading the attack using their planes and instead chose to launch my attack via the Israeli dolphin class submarines and I utilized the Shavit space station – nor did I use conventional warheads but nuclearized my war heads on the Jericho III missiles. The Jericho III missiles ranged are rumoured to be rather extensive. Iran became literally a wasteland with no communications or leadership left intact. The survivors were too busy just trying to survive getting out of Dodge – let alone regroup and coordinate an attack against the Israeli state.

What about retaliation via Syria and Hezbollah? Well, that’s what took up the other 7 days but you have to remember without Iranian patronage these regimes will be busy fighting for survival in the reality of the new middle east. Assad might be a crazy bastard but he wants to continue to rule Syria so he is not about to go mano-to mano with the Israeli state – which has just nuked his patron. I suspect Nasrallah will suddenly start to speak very softly as well.

Sure there will be an outcry in the UN and lots of condemnation all around even as the Gulf Arab states breath a deep sigh of relief. Besides an Israeli diplomatic message to most of the neighbours who start to make to much fuss along the lines of – ‘who wants to be next?’ should quell their thirst for Israeli blood. That UN Security veto – well, if the Israelis pull it off the Chinese will be very interested in making the Israelis their new best friends. The Chinese are motivated and interested in acquiring a space program their own and the Israelis have just pulled off a success attack based on their own naval and space station vehicle. Russia, Russia stands to make a fortune and usher in a new level of prosperity by becoming the primo European energy supplier. Can we say ‘hegemony’!

Everyone else will be too busy helping/working to alleviate the humanitarian disaster the Iranian neighbour states will be faced with as survivors struggle in seeking safe refuge. Yes, the Europeans will make a fuss but America will be circumspect. On the one hand, any American leadership will be appalled beyond the pale but most of the world will believe the Israelis had the go-ahead via POTUS. If the Americans are too strident publicly in its’ denials; it will work to defeat any advantage gained out of the situation and a huge major loss of face or credibility in the Arab and Muslim world.

And Israel, well Israelis may have to hunker down for a decade or so being the world’s pariah state, but eventually things will turn around. Israel is well on the way of becoming an energy independent state with its electric cars system, solar energy homes and extraction of oil from shale to need too much from the rest of the world. In fact, with the Israelis on the verge of so many cutting edge techniques and technology the rest of us cannot afford to keep the Israelis in Coventry for too long. Third world states the world over need exactly the kind of technological advantages and water filtration systems which have made Israel a techno-marvel. There will always be alliances to be pursued.

At some point in the near future an Israeli prime minister and his cabinet will be faced with this very decision. It all depends which way they role the dice. Take a chance and live with a nuclear armed Iranian state or unleash devastation on a scale unparalleled in the history of human warfare. Eighty million lives against 7 million Jewish ones. Who to pick? I know who I would pick but I cannot speak for Israeli prime ministers.

But here is some grist for thought. The current Israeli Chief of Staff is being very unceremoniously replaced in February 2011 and it was a very surprising decision. Ashkenazi is a popular and effective commander but it may well have been precipitated by Ashkenazi’s rumoured objection to an attack against the Iranian state.

According to this report, the Federal Government has decided to close all the Student Resources Centres located across the country in an effort to save the federal purse $6.5 Million. And why would a young person/student need help getting a job anyway….Besides, Lord knows, the conservatives need to find every penny after letting a certain Tory MP spend $50 million for Gazebos and other such nonsense.

Today, tanks and tank battles in Israel’s south are very much on my mind. As is our habit, I was having coffee with Gabriel via Skype (this is why I rarely blog in the am any more) and he insists I must make a list of everywhere I want to visit when I come to Israel in late March. Gabriel is up for a new position, and if all goes well, he will need to relocate from Rishon Lezion to the Central Negev region weeks before I arrive.

This is all well and good, but it does mean our travel plans will have to be seriously revised. Although, I keep telling him I am perfectly capable of catching a bus on my own and traveling wherever I want. Whenever I point out this fact, he just rolls his eyes at me and gives me the mabat (‘the look’ or is it mabot?’) and mumbles so quickly under his breath in Hebrew that I do not have a chance to catch all of what he is saying.

Gabriel is under the illusion it will be a terribly hardship for me to spend a month in the south of Israel and I will get terribly bored during the day while he is working. I have my suspicions that this is just his excuse to put me to work and find me a job while I am there – even if it is only tutoring in English. I just do not see it that way. All I can think of is all the tank battles which were fought in the south, and what a perfect opportunity this is to explore a part of history which I only know from books.

All of which turns my thoughts to the Merkava MK-IVs which are equipped with the Trophy missile-defense system. This really is just too cool….did I mention just how hard these tanks are to destroy? The IDF has come a long way since the War of Independence where pieces of pipes were cut, packed with explosive charges and buried in sand to conceal their presence from advancing Egyptian tanks.

The only reason this woman’s windshield isn’t in a million tiny pieces is probably because of a special ballistic laminate that is commonly used on windows in Israel. Boys will be boys and its all good – unless the IDF arrests the little thug - then the world will weep crocodile tears for this ‘child’s plight’.

As Bashar’s war against the Syrian people and their children shows no signs of slowing down; I thought I would offer up a little insight into why the Russian’s used their veto against the UN Security Council resolution against Assad’s Syria given flimsiness of what has been bandied about. This Pravada article from November 2012 offers two tantalizing bits.

Russian warships were sent to the military base in Syria. The fleet is led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. Included also are a patrol vessel and other vessels. The Russian government announced Tuesday that from December, a flotilla of warships will be sent to the naval base that it has in Syria. The authorities affirmed that the fleet will be led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and also have a patrol vessel, an anti-submarine ship, and other vessels.

The information was released by the newspaper Izvestia of the Eurasian country, quoting retired Admiral Viktor Kravchenko, who said Russia sent these weapons to Syria to “prevent” a military conflict. “Having any military force, other than the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), is very beneficial for the region, as it will prevent the outbreak of a military conflict,” said Kravchenko, who was head of the Russian Navy from 1998 to 2005.

A Russian navy spokesman, quoted by Izvestia also confirmed the plan to send ships to the maintenance base that Russia has on the Syrian coast, near Tartus, but assured that it has nothing to do with the current situation in Syria, where in the last months riots have appeared for and against President Bashar Al Assad.

The Russian naval base at Tartus, Syria, is the only toe-hold the Russian military have in the Middle East, and by propping up Assad’s rule; it guarantees the Russian military will keep their mega-patron in export sales while maintaining their naval base. For the Russians, it’s always been about protecting one’s investment.

Of course, I knew the Russians had Syrian naval base which was being fully kitted about by the Russians back in 2006, and that it would potentially cause problems for the West in the long run.

This is a bit of an old report from CAMERA about a very real and current phenomenon in Israel. It concerns activity being staged, filmed and then promoted by the Israeli (but mostly foreign funded) human rights (for everyone but Jews) organizations – such as B’Tselem.

What makes this particularly relevant now, is the nature of the staging concerned a Palestinian youth who was taken into custody. The video was widely promoted by B’Tselem and published by Ynet News, one of the large Israeli dailies, in both the English and Hebrew version. This underscores just how far B’Tselem is willing to go distribute any manufactured propaganda as long as it makes the Israeli state look disreputable. CAMERA:March 1 —

Once upon a time, journalists would report the news. Today, some prefer manufactured news. When journalists collaborate with organizations driven by a one-sided agenda aimed at influencing public opinion, the distinction between a newspaper and a propaganda mouthpiece is dangerously blurred.

Take, for example, B’Tselem, which noticed that some lazy journalists prefer to receive pre-packaged video clips over actually doing their jobs. These edited and ready-to-view clips then appear next to bombastic headlines, and the journalist congratulates himself for getting a scoop.

Such was the case early this week (Feb. 27) at the Israeli site Ynet, which appears in English and in Hebrew. Sunday’s Hebrew article by Elior Levi and the corresponding English version (”Video: 11-year-old Palestinian stone-thrower arrested”) are based on a video that B’Tselem apparently supplied to Levi.

One wonders if the intrepid Ynet journalists, including both Levi, his editors, and English translators, even bothered to view the pre-packaged B’Tselem video before passing it off as journalism. The article states:
In the video the officers can be seen putting the boy, Karim al-Tamimi, in a police vehicle after chasing him down. The boy’s mother pleaded with the officers to allow her to accompany him to the Sha’ar Binyamin police station, but her request was denied. . . .

The boy’s father, Salah al-Tamimit [sic] told Ynet, “They took him without a chaperone, and by the time we arrived at the police station he was already being interrogated.”

Yet, a careful viewing of the clip (with Hebrew and Arabic dialogue) reveals that the exact opposite was the case; the policemen invited the mother to accompany her child. At 2:07 minutes into the video, one of the policemen says to the mother, “Come, come, get in.” The cop then asks one of the people standing nearby, “Is that his mother?” When the bystander answers in the affirmative, the policeman repeats, “Get in with him” (the boy). The door is opened for her and she is about to get into the vehicle, as the policemen are saying “get into the car,” but then (2:27) the mother is pulled away from the car by the Palestinian man wearing a black jacket. After the policemen closes the van’s door, a woman wearing a pink shirt pushes the mother towards the vehicle, and then the mother bangs on the door, a heartrending scene.

The original video can be viewed at the original English publication of the incident at Ynet News. All of which is my long way of saying bewary of trusting any alleged Israeli human rights organization…all are suspect.