The Last Exile

The CBC has a reasonable report on the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Its a quick and dirty summary and more or less brings you up to speed with the state of the investigation.

Keep this in mind, when you read the CBC report. In 2008 the Lebanese government attempted to dismantle Hezbollah’s private telecommunication network and attempted a shut down. Hezbollah turned loose its’ private militia into the streets. A political detente was eventually reached in the Doha Agreement which many hailed as a new day for Lebanon unity but Hezbollah was eventually able to maneuver a veto over all cabinet decisions as well as keep its private militia in tack.

I am really rushed for time today. Far too, too much to do, but keep an eye on Lebanon as things seem to be heading to the boiling point towards confrontation between Hezbollah and the Lebanese people. Contrary to what the Hezzie’s want you to believe; Hezbollah is not the only confessional in Lebanon. Although, by the end of the week it may look like that. Much depends on how whether the other players in Lebanon have been using their time since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon wisely. No matter how its dressed up, the Lebanese dilemma is between choosing to live in freedom and civil war or oppression and rule by mullahcrat.

There isn’t much about the gathering storm in the Anglo-papers but this Jerusalem Post article gives some food for thought.

According to the sources, Beirut was divided into three zones of military control, allocated to Amal, Hizbullah and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party, and that alternative plans were prepared by Hizbullah for a scenario where the other groups could not hold control of their zones. Additionally, the report indicated that the “zero hour” refers to a scenario in which indictments are issued by the Hariri tribunal, followed by civil unrest in the streets of the Lebanese capital devolving into violence and a security vacuum. The report, quoting retired Lebanese Brig.-Gen. Amin Hattit who is known to be close to Hizbullah, said that the plans contained many realistic elements. He said that Hizbullah’s current strategy is to prevent strife, but if they are unable to prevent an explosion of unrest, they will take advantage. He said, “Everyone knows that the temptation will be limited geographically to areas where there is a Shi’ite majority,” referring to areas of Beirut, the Bekaa Valley region, and the south of the country. Hattit concluded that “if this scenario does take place, Hizbullah would be able to seize power in three days, or a week at most,” and that the “era of Hariri in Lebanon” would end forever.

All of which goes to show the folly of taking a soft stance and closing your eyes while Hezbollah rearmed after the 2006 war or thinking Hezbollah could be influenced to only direct their arms at Israel.

The Jerusalem Post carries a report of Ahmadinejad formally referring to Lebanon’s southern border as Iran’s border with Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad plans to visit what he has reportedly called “Iran’s border with Israel” during a trip to Lebanon later this month, referring to the Lebanese southern border.

Ahmadinejad is due to spend two days holding meetings and traveling the country over the course of an official tour beginning October 13th.

I would just like to point out I referred to Hezbollah – way back in 2006 – as the Iranian Foreign Legion and was mocked for it. The sad part is, so many Lebanese refuse to admit the greatest threat to Lebanese sovereignty is not the Israelis but Hezbollah.

There was a ‘not’ sectarian clash in the streets of Beirut with Hezbollah supports according to this New York Times article. Note: rifles, grenades and apparently RPG’s were deployed – and not by the Lebanese Army.

Members of the Shiite Hezbollah and the conservative Sunni Al-Ahbash group fought one another with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades on Tuesday, just blocks from downtown Beirut. Three people, including a Hezbollah official and his aide, were killed, security officials said, in the worst clash in Beirut since May 2008, when Hezbollah gunmen swept through Sunni neighborhoods after the government tried to dismantle the group’s telecommunications network.

No worries ‘cause everyone kissed and made up – everyone, but the dead that is.

A joint statement issued later by the two groups said that the episode had stemmed from a “personal dispute and has no political or sectarian background,” and that each side agreed to immediately end their differences and all armed street presences.

The NY Times blurb is interesting as it is the only report I have seen which alluding to the dismantling of a telecommunication network as the catalyst. The Jerusalem Post carries a somewhat less santizied version in which a battle was more reminiscent of a shoot-out inside the OK corral(or should I say ‘OK Mosque’?)

Gunmen stood on the corners and peered down alleyways in the neighborhood while families ran for cover. Ambulances rushed to the scene, and an elderly man was loaded into a stretcher, clutching his neck.

The shootout erupted between supporters of the Shi’ite Hizbullah and a Sunni conservative group in the mixed residential area of Bourj Abu Haidar near Beirut’s downtown, security officials said. Hizbullah was battling the pro-Syrian Sunni Association of Islamic Charitable Projects, known as the Al-Ahbash group, which has a history of feuding with the Shi’ite group, they added.

The officials said Muhammad Fawaz, the local Hizbullah commander in Bourj Abu Haidar, had been killed along with his subordinate Ali Jouaz. Fawaz Omeirat of Al-Ahbash was also killed in the fighting.

According to initial reports, the car in which they were traveling got into the crossfire between Hizbullah supporters and the Sunni group. According to Lebanese paper Al-Akhabr, the clash started when Al-Ahbash members tried to bar Hizbullah men from passing through a neighborhood where the Sunni group holds control.

Shortly afterward, Shi’ite supporters of Hizbullah and sister organization Amal set fire to a Sunni mosque in the nearby neighborhood of Basta, according to an AP photographer.

Salah, a 40-year-old who did not wish to give his last name, said he had been inside the Bourj Abu Haidar mosque when he heard a commotion outside and people screaming, “Calm down.” Then, 20 minutes later, he heard gunshots and bullets slamming into the mosque. “They were shooting at the mosque. I think these people are crazy. They must have gone home to get their friends,” he said. Salah stayed inside with others before fleeing during a lull in the fighting. Sunni fighters were reportedly holding the bodies of the slain Hizbullah members and were given a three-hour ultimatum to transfer them to Hizbullah.

As long as Hezbollah remains armed – the Lebanese will remain tourists in their native land.

There is something different about the Lebanese which makes them unique in the Middle East. For example, when the Minister of Defense for Lebanon learned the US congress had put a hold on military aid to the Lebanese Army he didn’t cry blame the Joos like everyone else in the neighborhood would do. Instead, he did the Lebanese equivalent of ‘take this job and shove it. Al-Jazeera

The Lebanese defence minister has said that the country will refuse military assistance from the US should any aid come with conditions that weapons not be used against Israel. The comments from Elias Murr were made on Wednesday, after it was revealed that $100 million in US military assistance to Lebanon had been suspended last week.

Aid was halted due to fears that Hezbollah, the Shia group backed by Iran, would manage to get hold of any arsenal provided. Concern was raised that Hezbollah holds influence over the Lebanese military and that the weapons could be used against Israel. “If someone would like to help the army without restrictions or conditions, he is welcome,” Murr said. “But those who want to help the army on condition that it doesn’t protect its territory, people and border from Israel, should keep their money - or give it to Israel instead,” Murr said. “We will confront [Israel] with the capabilities that we have.”

And then the Defense Minister opened up a bank account for private donations for the army. Zawya

BEIRUT, Aug 14, 2010 (AFP) – Lebanon has opened a bank account for donations to help modernise its poorly-equipped army, the defence minister said Saturday, two weeks after a deadly border clash between Lebanese and Israeli soldiers.

“I announce the launching of a fund to support and equip the army,” the official news agency NNA quoted Elias Murr as saying. It said the minister and his father, former defence minister Michel Murr, had deposited one billion Lebanese pounds (670,000 dollars) into an account at the central bank. Murr added that there would be a plan to communicate with the Lebanese diaspora about supporting the fund.

I wish Murr all the luck, although he might think about taking possession of Hezbollah’s arsenal before the fund rising drives starts. But there are a few things which Murr is reported to have said via Al-Jazeera which makes me go uhmmm. Now the prevailing ethos in Lebanon maintains that the Americans were re-examining military aid to Lebanon in light of the border skirmish and the rather disproportionate Lebanese response to tree trimming on the Israeli side of the border. This would be all very well and good except the Americans actually suspended aid August 2nd – two days before the border skirmish. Al Jazeera

Howard Berman, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said on Monday that he had suspended assistance to Lebanon on August 2 amid growing concern in Congress. A day after the decision, fighting on the Lebanese-Israel border led to the death of two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese journalist and an Israeli officer. Berman, a strong supporter of Israel, said that the incident reaffirmed the concerns of Congress. Berman had used his legislative prerogative to place a suspension on the money. It remains to be seen how long the suspension will last.

and apparently Murr had this to say:

Murr said on Wednesday that the Lebanese soldier who fired at Israeli forces during the border unrest was acting on orders.

What makes this interesting is that it certainly puts a different light on the whole Lebanese commander running amuck theory we have heard so much about. If US military aid was suspended on the 2nd, and we are presuming the Lebanese government knew about it shortly thereafter, and then Lebanese initiate and stage a border skirmish on the 3rd…it does lend itself to the appearance that the matter might just have been staged to ’shakedown’ the Americans.

Hezbollah leader Nasrallah had his press conference today to present the evidence that it was the Israelis who were responsible for the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri He promised to provide ‘definitive’ proof of Israeli involvement and instead what he provided was proof of Israeli air reconnaissance over Lebanon.

Really – he did. Actually, there was no evidence provided that the actual photographs were taken by the Israelis but Nasrallah’s word. I can’t stop my eyerolling – so instead read the Lebanon Daily Star’s recap:

Nasrallah disclosed that in 1997, the resistance intercepted Israeli transmissions from its aerial reconnaissance aircraft, and he aired a series of excerpts of this footage, predating Hariri’s February 14, 2005, killing.

The footage was divided into three sections: it covered extensive shots of the area between the St. George Club, where Hariri was killed by a truck bomb, and the late premier’s residence in Qoreitem, with repeated shots of turns in the road along Corniche al-Manara. Nasrallah said the footage indicated that the Israelis were likely studying methods of carrying out bombings and assassinations, since official motorcades slow down at such turns.

The footage included shots of what Nasrallah said was Hariri’s path to his vacation residence in Faqra, Kesrouan, as well as the city of Sidon, with a focus on the residence of his brother, Shafik. “And there are no Hizbullah centers or homes of officials in these areas,” he said.

Nasrallah added that the resistance had begun assembling the footage only in the last two years, from an accumulated store of material, and hadn’t had time to compile similar excerpts of Israeli reconnaissance around the areas frequented by other politicians who were assassinated in the wake of Hariri’s killing. “This isn’t definitive proof,” he said, “but it opens up new horizons for the investigations.” Nasrallah added that the aerial reconnaissance footage was necessarily incomplete, because the resistance was unable to crack some of its encoding. “Just because we don’t have footage of [a given location], doesn’t mean the Israelis didn’t take pictures of it,” he said.

And the Israeli kill kittens too – just ask Nasrallah. If he looks long enough he can probably scrounge around the Hezbollah archives for aerial photographs of kitten deaths and provide testimony from an accused Israeli spy who witnessed it too!

xp: The Last Amazon

As events have started to unfold it appears more and more likely the Israeli narrative is closest to what actually happened. The Israeli narrative goes as follows – Lt Col Avital Leibovich:

Lt Col Avital Leibovich of the IDF told Just Journalism in a conference call consisting of bloggers and journalists:

‘The incident itself took place on Israeli territory, in some places along the northern border. There is some gap between the border fence itself and the actual border. Our troops were conducting routine maintenance work that included, among other things, clearing bushes from that area.

‘In 2006, we had some soldiers that were kidnapped in a similar area [where shrubbery provided cover for kidnappers]. This maintenance job was coordinated with UNIFIL. It was routine, there was nothing unique. The LAF decided in a very provocative manner to initiate fire toward our forces. This is a strict and clear violation of UN Resolution 1701. We retaliated with artillery and helicopter fire, now we are checking at the deeper, intelligence level if it was pre-planned attack from the Lebanese army. We put the responsibility on the Lebanese Armed Forces.’

Leibovich also said that while there is some evidence that Hezbollah has infiltrated the ranks of the LAF, she could not at this point state with certainty if the Islamist party had any hand in today’s violence.

When asked about the LAF’s claim that its forces first fired into the air, then at Israeli troops, Leibovich responded that it was not the Israeli maintenance crew itself that was first targeted by gunfire, but rather a gathering of senior IDF commanders who were standing nearby, a clear sign, she maintained, of a Lebanese ‘provocation’.

The IDF has released a map of the border area at the site of today’s skirmish clearly showing the Blue line, the border of Israel, the Israeli fence and the area of where Israeli troops were located.

Ha’aretz is now reporting UNIFIL confirms 2 key facts. The IDF was well within the Israeli side of the Blue Line when the Lebanese army attack and UNIFIL did receive notitifcation of the Israeli maintenance which it duly passed on to the Lebanese Army.

Milos Strugar, UNIFIL’s senior political adviser said that the IDF had “informed UNIFIL that it was going to conduct maintenance works” on the border, adding that while the Israeli unit had been “on the northern side of the border fence,” it was nonetheless “south of the international borderline.”

However, the UNIFIL official added that the information he had was “preliminary,” adding that he will look into the evidence “more thoroughly” later in the day.
“The situation became tense right away, with the Lebanon army also being there,” Strugar said, adding that UNIFIL forces had tried “to calm the situation and allow the IDF to work.”

Asserting the IDF’s claim that it had informed the Lebanese side of the planned border works, Strugar said that UNIFIL had received a message from the IDF “regarding these works, and we had passed that on to the Lebanese army.”

Ha’aretz is also carrying a report suggesting the Lebanese officer who gave the command to fire was a ‘lone’ wacko wolf.

Israel Defense Forces analysts believe that the Lebanese sniper fire at the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday, which killed Lt. Col. Dov Harari and seriously wounded Captain Ezra Lakia, was in fact an ambush planned by a Lebanese officer who was encouraged by his commanders.

Israel Defense Forces analysts believe that the Lebanese sniper fire at the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday, which killed Lt. Col. Dov Harari and seriously wounded Captain Ezra Lakia, was in fact an ambush planned by a Lebanese officer who was encouraged by his commanders. The exchange of fire began when Israeli soldiers approached the border in order to trim some bushes that had grown along the fence. The operation had been coordinated in advance with UNIFIL, which in turn informed the Lebanese army.

As in previous cases of such Israeli activity, the Lebanese army deployed soldiers to the area. After a round of yelling, unanswered by the Israeli troops, Lebanese snipers opened deliberate fire at the IDF observation post several hundred meters into Israel, the IDF said. Harari and Lakia had manned the observation post, and both sustained serious gunfire wounds.

According to information gathered by the IDF, the sniper fire was ordered by a commanding officer within the Lebanese army. The IDF has found no indication that the officer received an order to open fire, and believe that the decision was his alone. However, it is known that the particular officer was influenced by inciting remarks against Israel made by the top commanders of the Lebanese army in the recent past.

I’d be willing to accept the whole lone wacko wolf scenario except something still  really reeks. It turns out there was just happened to be a Reuters photographer on hand to witness the Lebanese side of the exchange wherein the soldiers were given the order to attack. Although, that still doesn’t distract from the lone wolf wacko scenario except….take a good look at where the Blue helmets are standing and ask yourself what is UNIFIL’s role? Acting as cover or shields while the Lebanese army snipers attack an Israeli officer well within the the border of Israel does not strike me as within the terms of their mandate. In fact, I would suggest these blue helmets have seriously compromised the mission they were tasked in carrying out.

The Israeli government needs to seek a very public explanation from the UNIFIL command.

But Israelis don’t feel the ‘love’. Jerusalem Post:

LAF soldiers open fire at Israeli patrol; IDF responds with gunfire, mortars, artillery; reports say IDF soldiers attempted to uproot tree in Lebanon, 2 Lebanese wounded. Israeli and Lebanese forces clashed along the northern border Tuesday. The conflict began when Lebanese soldiers opened fire on an IDF patrol. The soldiers returned fire, including with mortars and artillery. According to initial reports, the soldiers were on a routine patrol. They were operating past the border fence, but within Israeli territory, because the fence does not always exactly parallel the border. One Lebanese soldier and one civilian were wounded in the exchange, according to al-Jazeera, which said the clashes started after Israeli soldiers reportedly attempted to uproot a tree on the Lebanese side. Other reports said the Israeli soldiers were attempting to plant cameras. “The Israelis fired four rockets that fell near a Lebanese army position in the village of Adaysseh and the Lebanese army fired back,” a Lebanese security official in the area told AFP news agency.

I hate this ‘he said-she said’ nonsense.

What is interesting in this exchange is that it follows yesterday’s rocket attacks launched against Israel in the south with katyusha rockets – the favoured projectiles of Hezbollah… coincidence? Uhmm.

Apparently, Egypt isn’t thrilled with Hezbollah attempting to do a little outreach in their country. Ha’aretz.

An Egyptian court on Wednesday convicted 26 men of planning attacks inside Egypt and of being linked to Lebanese group Hezbollah. Judge Adel Abdel Salam Gomaa of the emergency state security court sentenced the men – who included Lebanese, Palestinians, Egyptians and one Sudanese – to prison terms ranging from six months to 25 years. Egypt’s announcement that it detained the men heightened tensions with Hezbollah, a militant group that is now part of the Lebanese government.

It would be great if I never had to listen to any more prittle along the lines of ‘Hezbollah is defensive militia group safeguarding only Lebanese interests’…although I do sincerely doubt it. So in the meantime let us all be thankful Hezbollah does not have the capabilities of the Mossad.

Left Hand From the Jerusalem Post:

Hizbullah sources confirmed on Thursday that the group had received a shipment of Scud missiles from Syria, the Kuwaiti paper Al-Rai reported.

Right Hand from Ynet News:

Lebanon’s Western-backed prime minister has denied Israeli allegations that Hezbollah obtained Scud missiles, comparing them to the false American charges that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction ahead of the 2003 US-led invasion.
 
Saad Hariri appeared to be trying to ease tensions raised by Israeli President Shimon Peres’ accusations that Syria supplied the Lebanese militant group with Scuds, which can carry a warhead of up to 1 ton and would be far larger than the biggest rockets previously in Hezbollah’s arsenal.

I get where Hariri is coming from and its not that I am without sympathy. I recognize giving Hezbollah veto power over the government is the Lebanese version of detente. This detente has given Lebanon a measure of peace and allowed them to pull back from the abyss of unending civil war but allowing Hezbollah to have literally tens of thousands of missiles with Israel’s name on them (whether or not any of those missiles are Scuds) will one day mean Hezbollah will set the skies over Beirut to rein death and destruction. Putting off the disarmament of Hezbollah is only short term peace for long-term pain.

As long as Hezbollah keeps its arsenal of weapons it is inevitable that there will be another war with Israel. The only question is when,and not, if.