The Last Exile

Earlier this week Hezbollah was granted the right to keep its ‘arms’ by the new Lebanese government but contrary to umpteen UN resolutions. Jerusalem Post:

Lebanon’s new government Wednesday endorsed Hizbullah’s right to keep its weapons, the latest sign that the group has no intention of meeting a UN resolution calling for it to disarm. (…) All 30 cabinet ministers voted Wednesday to approve the policy statement that endorses Hizbullah’s right to keep its weapons. Five ministers from the pro-Western majority expressed “reservations” over the clause addressing Hizbullah, but did not vote against it.

The policy statement – which lays out the government’s goals for the next four years – illustrates how the government is loath to take any strong action against Hizbullah for fear of sparking a crisis. The group has virtual veto power over the government’s moves, most analysts believe, because sectarian violence could follow if it pulls out.

Many fear a renewed outbreak of the sectarian violence seen in 2008, when Hizbullah gunmen swept through Sunni neighborhoods of Beirut to briefly seize control after the government moved to curb the group’s military communications network. More than 80 people were killed in the violence that followed, pushing the country to the brink of civil war.

The threat of civil war is like a nagging cough that never entirely leaves the Lebanese body politic – this policy move grants legitimacy to Hezbollah’s deadly arsenal but does not absolve or offer a shield to the Lebanese government from any unilateral action Hezbollah chooses to take with its arsenal. If anything, the government is now implicit in any unilateral actions Hezbollah undertakes to make. Some point to Hezbollah’s new manifesto – (the first update since the mid-80’s) as evidence of Hezbollah’s political maturity and marks Hezbollah as more pragmatic and distinctly Lebanese quasi-political movement. Although, there are those who beg to differ. The Jerusalem Post:

It is correct that the new manifesto does not include the previous document’s call for the establishment of an “Islamic Republic” in Lebanon. But here an interesting discrepancy emerges. The longer, Arabic version of the manifesto is steeped in religious rhetoric and Islamist terminology. Nasrallah opens his statement with two quotations from the Koran. The manifesto’s first section refers to “resistance in the way of jihad,” and the “jihadi way.” The section dealing with “Palestinian resistance” depicts Hizbullah as practicing “jihadi resistance.” The section dealing with Iran notes the “blessed Islamic revolution led by the Vali al-Faqih Imam Khomeini.” (The latter phrase refers to the system of government operative in Iran, Vilayat al-Faqih – rule of the jurisprudent, i.e., clerical rule.) The section on “resistance” deals with the movement’s “mujihadeen and its martyrs.”

The Arabic version of the manifesto also contains a whole section entitled “Jerusalem and the Aksa Mosque,” which asserts that “to liberate Jerusalem and defend Aksa Mosque” is a “religious duty” incumbent on Muslims.

But in the English-language version of the manifesto, the section on Jerusalem, and all the phrases mentioned above, do not appear. The English version, indeed, is innocent of all reference to jihad or Koranic quotation. On Al-Manar, it is not made clear that the English version contains only selected excerpts from the manifesto. On the regime-supported Syrian News Station Web site, meanwhile, the English version is presented as the “full text of Hizbullah’s new political document.”

The discrepancies suggest that Hizbullah considers it in its interest to tone down or remove the pro-Iranian and jihadi parts of its identity when presenting itself to the outside world. But the full document in its original form suggests that the movement has not strayed far from its original path.

The new manifesto contains a call for the ending of the sectarian system of political representation in Lebanon. This is the final aspect cited by those asserting that Hizbullah is undergoing a process of moderation. But this does not represent a concession on Hizbullah’s part. The movement believes, possibly correctly, that the Shi’a community has a long-term demographic advantage in Lebanon. Ending Lebanon’s consociational system is therefore intended, in the fullness of time, to deliver the country into its hands.

There was a joke Lebanese told themselves during war with Israel in 2006 which went like this; Lebanon is Hezbollah and the rest of us our just tourists. From where I stand in 2009, it is evident the Cedar Revolution has failed and the joke isn’t even remotely humorous any more but sadly true.

What if Hezbollah had an election but no one voted? I suspect it wouldn’t matter. Ha’aretz:

The militant Hezbollah group says that Sheik Hassan Nasrallah has been re-elected as the group’s leader for a sixth term. A Hezbollah statement Thursday did not say when top Hezbollah officials voted to re-elect Nasrallah as the guerrilla group’s secretary-general.

Nasrallah has been Hezbollah’s leader since 1992, and not once in all that time – has Nasrallah ever, ever, ever come close to losing a vote.

I once knew a Lebanese man who wasn’t much of a political until he had the misfortune to be kidnapped and held captive for 44 days by Hezbollah. He was taken by surprise when walking home at the end of his work day. A hood was suddenly placed around his head and he dragged into a car. The irony of his kidnapping was that the Hezbollah had meant to kidnap someone else but the ‘resistance’ had targeted the wrong man. Hezbollah, never missing an opportunity to profit or turn an evil screw, made the misfortune work for them.

His captivity only ended when his family arranged payment of Hezbollah’s ransom demand. The scars from his ordeal was etched into his body and mind. Up until his ‘capture’, he had done his best to keep his head down and stay out of messy politics which made up the Lebanese civil war. It wasn’t so much as he choose sides as the war chose him.

As the war dragged on and on, and uncle after uncle, cousin after cousin, brother after brother fell; it was decided by what was left of his family to ask him to leave while he was still alive and young enough to start his life over. They pooled their resources and begged him to leave, and so, he did just that. Eventually he made his way to Canada which is where I first ran into him. He never really felt at home or settled down here but why would he? He was young, urbane and baptized by civil war in one of the most modern, and yet, ancient cities of the world. He was effortlessly multi-lingual and well-read in a country where bilingualism meets great resistance and Margaret Atwood is held to represent the height of modern Canadian literature.

Toronto was a very different place in those very waspish days. He did not even know where to get a drink ‘after hours’ or a decent meal until he met me. It was a fair trade off. I showed him where to eat, gamble, dance or get a drink after hours and he introduced me to cognac and plied me with French perfume, lingerie and the joy of wearing silk stockings. He just couldn’t understand how anyone could survive a winter here without cognac and a woman dressed in lace and silk. My association with him did not stay secret long, and despite my best intentions, my grandmother still learned of it. It caused one of the few rip-roaring arguments I ever had with my beloved grandmother. We were reduced to screaming at each other in a multitude of languages with a torrent of curses reining down on both our heads. I remember my grandfather fleeing to his work room to read psalms and pray for divine forgiveness.

My association with him did not end well for either of us. He claimed I broke his heart, but in retrospect, Lebanese politics forced him to choose sides and not one of his options was mine, and as my grandmother rightly reminded me; I wasn’t the fucking UN. I really don’t think of him very often but when I saw this report from the Jerusalem Post I remembered it all – including Beirut.

A leading school in Lebanon was forced to remove pages from a history book said to describe Hizbullah as a terrorist organization after a Cabinet minister from the group complained, a state news agency reported Tuesday.

The textbook has been used for seven years by Beirut’s International College, a secondary school, said its president, John Johnson, according to the state-run National News Agency. The book, Modern World History, is printed in the United States, the daily As-Safir reported. The US has branded Hizbullah a terrorist group. The newspaper said the book is taught to 8th grade students.
On Sunday, Labor Minister Mohammed Fneish, a Hizbullah member, complained about the book and called on the Education Ministry to take action against schools teaching it and remove it from the approved curriculum.

All of which just goes to prove Hezbollah is Lebanon and the rest are just tourists. In other news, the UN General Secretary is suggesting Hezbollah and other armed Palestinian armed groups could re-ignite the Lebanese Civil War….

It appears the Turks have become good at something beyond denial – Ha’aretz:

Israel Credit Insurance Company figures show late payments by Turkish importers of Israeli products increased dramatically in the first nine months of the year, by 90%. A total of $40 million in debt is “substantially late,” which the ICIC defines as more than 30 days after the credit terms set by Israeli exporters and their customers. The increase encompasses all exports to Turkey. Relations have taken a turn for the worse in recent years, after an Islamic party rose to power in Turkey.

(…)ICIC chief executive David Milgrom said there have been unusual instances of Turkish companies not paying debts to Israeli exporters. Collecting debt in Turkey is relatively complicated, he added. Turkish banks that used to provide information to exporters about which potential clients had restrictions placed on their bank accounts have stopped doing so, making it even more difficult to manage customer credit in the country. At the same time, Israeli exports to Turkey have plunged by 40%, while exports overall decreased 22%.

And in other news, Lebanon – a country currently being investigated for UN Resolutions 1701 violations has been elected to the UN Security Council.

This is one of those posts which I use as reference bookmark rather than emphasizing or marking it beyond a few lines of commentary. On Friday, the Israeli-Lebanese bordered heated up. Jerusalem Post:

The rockets struck open fields near Nahariya. No injuries or damage were reported. The IDF responded by firing some 15 artillery shells toward the source of the fire near the Lebanese city of Tyre. IDF sources said the rockets were 122-mm. Katyushas, a short-range projectile known to be in the hands of Hizbullah, as well as smaller Palestinian terrorist groups that operate in southern Lebanon. Israel also reportedly called homes throughout Lebanon and warned residents that the IDF reserved the right to respond to the Friday attack. The army released a statement saying that Israel holds the Lebanese government responsible for terrorist attacks that originate in its sovereign territory.

Apparently, the attack was only a surprise to the Israelis. Jerusalem Post

According to A Nahar, UNIFIL troops also received a report of the type of rockets to be used, and the United Nations force passed the information on to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) two days ahead of the attack. The report did not state whether the LAF acted on the intelligence.

On Saturday, Lebanese media reported that the rockets were fired by four men who arrived to a village near Tyre by pick-up truck, positioned the rockets on launchers, set up timers and escaped. Following the shooting on Friday, UNIFIL and the LAF raised their level of alert.

The IDF fired about 15 artillery shells at the source of the shooting immediately afterward. It estimated that the rockets were fired by elements of Global Jihad and that the incident was isolated and would not lead to escalation on the Lebanese front. Later Friday evening, Israel filed an official complaint with the UN over the incident. In the complaint, Israel’s envoy Gabriela Shalev clarified that Jerusalem held Lebanon responsible for the shooting.

I realize UNIFIL dotted all their i’s and crossed all their t’s of their mandate in forwarding the intelligence onto the Lebanese Army but would it have been so far out of the line of reasonableness to pass on that same intelligence report to the Israelis whose civilians are actually the ones at risk?

The BBC reports six bombs went off in Beirut yesterday on the eve of national reconcilation talks.

Six makeshift bombs exploded in the Corniche al-Mazraa area of central Beirut overnight on Sunday, Lebanese security officials say.

They caused damage to cars and shops but no casualties.

The blasts were in an area where sectarian clashes took place in May, shortly before the agreement to form a national unity government.

Oh, did I mention the discussion of Hezbollah’s arms are tabled for discussion at the national reconcilation talks?

If you still had any questions concerning Hezbollah’s state-within-a-state status within Lebanon, this Ynet News report should be clarifying:

Hizbullah shot down the Lebanese military helicopter earlier on Thursday over the village of Sejoud – sources close to the Shiite group confirmed to Lebanese media. The attack resulted in the death of the pilot, identified as First Lieutenant Samer Hanna. Two other military men who were traveling in the helicopter were wounded in the crash.

The reports, attributed to media associated with the anti-Syrian camp in Lebanon, assert Hizbullah intentionally shot down the chopper: “The helicopter was downed because it crossed the red lines which Hizbullah warned the ministry of defense and military not to go over. “Hizbullah informed them it was their obligation to uphold this. Hizbullah believes that that the ministry of defense and army headquarters did not know that the helicopter entered the no-fly zone.”

Hizbullah issued a formal announcement in which it denounced the incident. The organization said however that the region in question was “sensitive” for Hizbullah.

In a move which seems quick to deflect and assign blame for the incident on the ‘anti-Syrian’ elements for the incident there was this statement issued:

But despite the sources’ claims, Lebanese officials Ynet spoke with questioned Hizbullah’s involvement. They noted that the reports originated from the anti-Syrian camp, which is extremely hostile to Hizbullah. “At present time there are no official reports in Lebanon indicating this,” the officials said.

Of course, well all know Hezbollah wouldn’t spill Lebanese blood in pursuit of their agenda…unless the so-called Lebanese are Sunni, Druze or Maronites…I am only surprised no one blamed Zionist fairies with rpg’s.

There are two stories coming out of Lebanon which are rather noteworthy. The first happened earlier in the week when Hezbollah received full veto power in the ‘new’ Lebanese administration. This report from the Daily News of Bahrain:

BEIRUT: Hizbollah and its allies solidified their hold on Lebanon’s government yesterday with the formation of a national unity cabinet in which the opposition has veto power over government decisions.Still, the Western-backed parliamentary majority managed to deny the Hizbollah-led opposition any of the most important Cabinet positions, except for the one it had already held – foreign affairs.

Cabinet positions or not, chalk it down to an another win-win for the Hezzies. Then there is this report early morning report inthe Jerusalem Post:

In what is being interpreted in Israel as a declaration of ownership, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has built a road and set up a military position in the Shaba Farms/ Mount Dov area for the first time since Israel’s withdrawal from that part of Lebanon in 2000.

Israeli defense officials confirmed the move, which was first reported in the Lebanese media, but would not comment on its significance. According to the reports, the LAF paved a road into the Bastara Farm, which is on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line international border and lies just 300 meters away from the land that Israel conquered in 1967.

A ten hour break from the computer and the first story which catches my eye is this one where the rhetoric is decidedly heating up at the Jerusalem Post:

Should diplomacy fail to return “Israeli-occupied land” to Lebanon, the Lebanese army (LAF) will take it by force, Lebanese President Gen. Michel Sueleiman said on Sunday. Suleiman was speaking at a press conference after meeting Syrian President Bashar Assad on the sidelines of the Mediterranean conference in Paris. The Lebanese president stressed, however, that the military option was the last resort. Assad said Lebanon had an important role to play in the Middle East peace process and that any progress in future Israel-Lebanon negotiations would be made in coordination with Syria.

Mighty feisty words coming from Sueleiman. After all, he was the commander and chief of the LAF who signed off on the 3 month siege of a refugee camp inhibited by approximately only 100 ‘militants’. Not exactly what I would call a great or stunningly brilliant military operation but now he thinks he’s ready to take on the IDF. While it is true Israel failed to accomplish her twofold objectives of the Lebanon war, the fact remains, the Israelis owned every single battlefield as well as the skies over Lebanon.

Ynet News:

At least two people were killed and 41 wounded on Wednesday in renewed sectarian clashes in Lebanon’s second largest city Tripoli, security sources said. Explosions and machinegun fire rocked the city from midnight as Sunni Muslim supporters of the government and Alawite gunmen close to the Shiite Hizbullah-led opposition battled on the outskirts of the mainly Sunni Muslim port.

The fighting began after four grenades were fired at a street separating the Sunni Bab Tibbaneh district and Alawite Jabal Mohsen district, scenes of deadly clashes last month.

The sources said two people, one from each side, were killed and 41 were wounded, including two Lebanese soldiers. Army units, which had deployed in the area to end last month’s clashes, appeared to be caught in the crossfire and unable to intervene, they said.

I think one would be hard pressed to find a more apt motto for the Lebanese Army ‘caught in the crossfire and unable to intervene’.

What a shock to realize Mugniyah and I were the same age but the similarities end there. For example, in my 14th year I was entering high school and busy making new friends. Mugniyah, on the other hand, was busy acting as one of Yasir Arafat’s Force 17 snipers picking off Maronite Christians from the green line in Beirut. While I only retain the vaguest of memories of the friends I made from that year – Mugniyah’s enemies have never forgotten him and they are legion.

I know the Iranians, Syrians, and Hezbollah are all screaming that the Mossad planted the car bomb which killed Mugniyah but Mugniyah had a great many enemies besides the Israelis or Americans; which is what happens when you start a career of killing people at 14. I realize common Mid-East paranoida suggests there is a Mossad agent hiding behind every rock, tree, and car seat in the Middle East, but sadly, it is just not so.

In fact, I think it much more likely, that Mugniyah was killed by an enemy much closer to home. While many eyes have been off Lebanon in recent months there has been a string of car bombing targeting the Christian fraction of the March 14th movement. The last one killed Brig. Gen. Francois Hajj just this past December. Or it could be a former Phalange member, Maronite or even relative of Elie Hobeika coming back to settle accounts. What you should understand is that Mugniyah may have been a founding member of Hezbollah but this Palestinian was not cherished or beloved by all Lebanese. Hezbollah is not yet Lebanon and may it never be so.

The Jerusalem Post carries a whiff of the controversy and highlights the danger in Beirut today:

Throngs of Lebanese were turning out Thursday for two opposing Beirut gatherings – Shi’ite Muslims supporters of Hizbullah to bid farewell to its slain top commander Imad Mughniyeh, and their pro-Western opponents at a downtown square to mark former prime minister Rafik Hariri’s 2005 assassination.

The two gatherings showcased Lebanon’s divided soul but also increased fears of violence between the rival sides, prompting authorities to deploy thousands of troops and set up blockades on major roads. Amid fears of violence between the opposing sides, authorities deployed thousands of troops and blocked major roads.
Hizbullah urged crowds to its stronghold of south Beirut to march behind the coffin of Mughniyeh, the group’s former security chief and one of world’s most wanted terrorists, killed in a car bombing in Damascus. The group called on supporters to “carry on our shoulders a leader of whose leadership we were proud, and a martyr by whose martyrdom we’re honored.” “Let us make our voice heard by all the enemies and murderers that we will be victorious, no matter the sacrifices,” said a Hizbullah statement aired on the militant group’s television station Al-Manar. Hizbullah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah – himself in hiding because of fears of assassination since the Second Lebanon War – was expected to address mourners through a video broadcast over giant screen.

The anti-Syrian parliamentary majority had hoped that a massive show of popular support, perhaps by hundreds of thousands, on the Hariri anniversary would force the Hizbullah-led opposition to compromise in a 15-month political stalemate that has paralyzed the country. The anniversary rally also meant to send a message to Syria to stay out of Lebanon politics. Billboards on major highways called for supporters to attend: “Come down, so they don’t come back.”
(…)
By the time Mughniyeh’s funeral gets under way in early afternoon, a few miles away in downtown Beirut, a mass rally by government supporters and opponents of Hizbullah marking the third anniversary of Hariri’s assassination was to expected to wind down.

Hariri’s supporters blame Syria for killing the prominent politician in a massive suicide truck bombing in Beirut three years ago and for a series of bombings and assassinations since. Hariri’s assassination ignited mass protests and international pressure that forced Syria to withdraw its army from Lebanon after 29 years of control.

Authorities have deployed some 8,000 troops and policemen to protect the downtown rally Thursday and leading roads. Armored carriers took up positions on major road intersections, and additional razor wire was brought in to separate the two sides on rain-drenched streets.