The Last Exile

Shirza Herzog has what passes for a prominent name in Israeli politics but for the life of me I cannot recall one article or position she has taken via the Israeli-Palestinian conflict where she has been right. I really tuned out big time as she tried to pass off Sharon’s disengagement as the best thing since sliced bread rather than a disaster of biblical proportions in the making for both the Israelis and Palestinians.

But she does bring up an an important topic which is being discussed seriously by both the Israeli and Palestinian body politic. Probably much more seriously in the Palestinian side than the Israeli – possibly because the so-called intelligentsia in Israel are leftwardly bent – even the so-called centralists bend from the left, and most of the opposition to the idea of a one state solution to the conflict comes from the Israeli left rather than the right. The Globe and Mail,

New winds seem to be blowing in Israel’s right wing. Prominent voices opposed to relinquishing the West Bank and Jewish settlements are calling instead for its annexation, with citizenship for Palestinians living there. On the face of it, this sounds virtuously democratic. But the right has no intention of abandoning its vision of a Jewish state in expanded territory. What’s being proposed is neither practical nor intellectually honest.

Israel’s 7.5 million residents already include nearly one million Palestinian citizens. Palestinian numbers are debated, but incorporating the West Bank and East Jerusalem would mean the addition of close to three million more and a narrower Jewish majority. Israeli support for a two-state resolution of its conflict with the Palestinians is largely based on this demographic imperative. If Israel wants to remain a democracy, maintain a Jewish majority and be a homeland for the Jewish people, it can’t possibly become a single binational state. (This underpins the reluctance of all Israeli governments to annex territories captured in 1967.)

In spite of this, Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin, former Likud defence minister Moshe Arens and former Settlers’ Council chair Uri Elizur believe that evacuating settlements and an unstable Palestinian state alongside Israel are worse than the risk of incorporating an even larger Palestinian minority in a Jewish state. The Israeli right has espoused annexation since 1967 but wouldn’t face up to its underlying weakness – the demographic issue and its impact on Israel’s democracy.

Ah, the demographic bogey-man. That argument was considered compelling during the re-birth pangs of the Jewish state, but in 2010, there is simply no place except for it in the modern state of Israel. I won’t even bring up the charge intellectually dishonest charge – cause I cannot do it without a great deal of name calling, but ironically, the largest block against a single state solution comes from a marriage of the Israeli left and the official Palestinian leadership. C’est surprise – not.

Yoram Ettinger takes on the demographic bogeyman in Ynet News, an Israeli daily.

In 2010, a surge in the Israeli Jewish fertility rate is a long-term, unique, global phenomenon, while fertility rates decline sharply in the Third World in general and in Muslim countries in particular.

In 2010, there is a 66% Jewish majority in 98.5% of the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean (without Gaza) – and a 58% Jewish majority with Gaza. That Jewish majority benefits from a demographic tailwind and from a high potential of aliyah (Jewish immigration) and of returning Israeli expatriates.

In comparison, in 1900 and 1947 there was an 8% and a 33% Jewish minority, deprived of economic, technological and military infrastructures. In 2010, the number of Arabs in Judea and Samaria is inflated by 900,000 (1.6 million and not 2.5 million) through the inclusion of 400,000 overseas residents, a double-count of 200,000 Jerusalem Arabs (who are counted as Israeli Arabs by Israel and as West Bank Arabs by the Palestinian Authority), and by ignoring annual net-emigration since 1950 (e.g. 17,000 in 2009), etc. Meanwhile, a World Bank study documents a 32% “inflation” in Palestinian birth numbers.

Since the appearance of modern-day Zionism, the demographic establishment has contended that Jews are doomed to be a minority west of the Jordan River. It asserts that Jews must relinquish geography in order to secure demography. But, what if demographic fatalism is based on dramatically erroneous assumptions and numbers? What if the demographic establishment has adopted Palestinian numbers without auditing, although such numbers are refuted annually by an examination of birth, death, migration and 1st grade registration records?

What if the contended Palestinian numbers require a population growth rate almost double the highest population growth rate in the world, while Gaza and Judea and Samaria are ranked 5th and 38th in global population growth rate? What if the demographic establishment failed to realize that the Arab demographic surge of 1949-1969 (in pre-1967 Israel) and 1967-1990 (in Judea and Samaria and Gaza) had to be succeeded by a sharp demographic decline?

Contrary to demographic projections, the first half of 2010 sustains the growth of the Jewish fertility rate and the sharp and rapid fall of the Arab fertility rate throughout the Muslim World, as well as west of the Jordan River. The decline in Arab fertility results from accelerated urbanization and modernization processes, such as education, health, employment, family planning, reduced teen pregnancy, enhanced career mentality among women, in addition to domestic security concerns.

The Washington-based Population Resource Center reported a sharp dive in global Muslim fertility, trending toward two births per woman. For instance, Iran shrunk from 8 births 30 years ago to 1.7, Egypt – 2.5, North Africa – 1.9, Jordan – a “twin sister” of Judea and Samaria – is below 3 births per woman and Judea and Samaria’s fertility rate is 3.2 in 2010. According to demographic precedents, there is a very slight probability of resurrecting high fertility rates following a prolonged period of significant reduction.

In contrast with demographic fatalism, the share of Jewish births in pre-1967 Israel has increased in 2010 – mostly due to the secular sector – to 76% of total births, compared with 75% in 2009 and 69% in 1995. From 80,400 births in 1995 the number of Jewish births catapulted by 50% to 121,000 in 2009, while the annual number of Arab births has stabilized at 39,000 due to their most impressive integration into Israel’s infrastructures of modernity.

The fertility gap between Arabs (3.5 births per woman and trending downward) and Jews (2.9 and trending upward) was reduced from 6 birth per woman in 1969 to 0.6 in 2009. The erosion in the Arab fertility rate is 20 years faster than projections made by Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

Okay, that’s the elites duking it out, but what of those gun-crazed settlers roaming around Samaria and Judea? Joe Settler has this to say.

I’ll admit, certainly if you keep the Palestinian state of Hamastan (Gaza) out of the picture, it does have some points of merit.

Israel still remains a Jewish democratic state because we’re still the majority, and probably will continue to be so (and even with Gaza we still would have a Jewish majority). Israel annexes the whole of Judea and Samaria and gradually and carefully naturalizes the Arab population. It certainly diffuses the absurd claims that the Palestinians don’t have democratic representation (though I will admit that since the PA hasn’t had elections for a while, and the term of their Prime Minister expired over a year ago, there is something to that claim, but they’re just blaming the wrong people for that problem). The US trained PA military can be incorporated into the Police, where they’ll get along fine. And finally, everyone can live and build where they want (I can just see Tel Aviv getting flooded with West Bankers, and I would certainly start my expansion). Jerusalem wouldn’t need to be divided according to anybody, and the path of the light rail wouldn’t need to be changed. And finally, we can tear down that ugly wall heading towards the middle of my house.

After all, if we can all shop and work in Rami Levi together, a single state isn’t such a impossible idea.

Joe has a valid point – it isn’t an impossible idea and its time to seriously explore the idea rather than the knee-jerk no way, no how, response from the Israeli left. As for the demographics, if Jews in the homeland of the Jewish state can’t care enough to keep the mitzvot – specifically be fruitful and multiply; is there any reason for Israel to remain the homeland of Jews who don’t exist? Really people; what is the point?

Now there are a rather large number of practical hurdles which would have to be broached in any discussion of a one-state solution – none the less would be the Palestinian Authority and what passes for the political leadership of the Palestinians would be obviously dead set against the idea.

The red-line in the sand for the Israelis would be Hamastan in the south and 4 million+ Palestinians disbursed throughout the Arab world, but given, even if a Palestinian state would be established no one would be returning any time soon due to the one practical reality, which is, a Palestinian state could not adsorb an influx of 4 million people. The water resources and infrastructure would make it a human catastrophe in less than 6 months. Oh, did I mention Israel already has two official languages – Hebrew and Arabic – already?

Officer Bubbles makes an appearance at the announcement of the G20 civil lawsuits but he keeps a ‘low profile’ this time.

I really think the taxpayer’s ought to start looking very closely at the idea of garnishing the pay of all officers involved in the civil rights violations given that any payout (not to mention the cost for the government to defend the indefensible in court) will have to come out of out of the taxpayers’ pockets.

It just seems to me when we let the authorities get a free ride on the cost of civil rights violations we enabling the very kind of behaviour we not only scorn in a free society but actively legislate against.

And just because bullies make me feel particularly meanspirited I present Officer Bubbles – the cartoon.

My hosting service is migrating me to a bigger, newer, faster server and somehow along the way I got shut out. So into the void did all my ‘work-in-progress’ posts go. It’s nice to know even if the ‘old’ place is still cozy. Although, if I am going to be here for any lenght of time I must update the look. So until all is well in my corner of cyber-space expect to find me here. And yes, Kateland and Shoshanna are one and the same. Ata mehveen evrit? If so, then you should understand why.

For some strange reason, my internet provider can now find my address but my posts on Lebanon are all still gone…alas. Anyway, until things settle down, I will be posting both here and at The Last Amazon

As events have started to unfold it appears more and more likely the Israeli narrative is closest to what actually happened. The Israeli narrative goes as follows – Lt Col Avital Leibovich:

Lt Col Avital Leibovich of the IDF told Just Journalism in a conference call consisting of bloggers and journalists:

‘The incident itself took place on Israeli territory, in some places along the northern border. There is some gap between the border fence itself and the actual border. Our troops were conducting routine maintenance work that included, among other things, clearing bushes from that area.

‘In 2006, we had some soldiers that were kidnapped in a similar area [where shrubbery provided cover for kidnappers]. This maintenance job was coordinated with UNIFIL. It was routine, there was nothing unique. The LAF decided in a very provocative manner to initiate fire toward our forces. This is a strict and clear violation of UN Resolution 1701. We retaliated with artillery and helicopter fire, now we are checking at the deeper, intelligence level if it was pre-planned attack from the Lebanese army. We put the responsibility on the Lebanese Armed Forces.’

Leibovich also said that while there is some evidence that Hezbollah has infiltrated the ranks of the LAF, she could not at this point state with certainty if the Islamist party had any hand in today’s violence.

When asked about the LAF’s claim that its forces first fired into the air, then at Israeli troops, Leibovich responded that it was not the Israeli maintenance crew itself that was first targeted by gunfire, but rather a gathering of senior IDF commanders who were standing nearby, a clear sign, she maintained, of a Lebanese ‘provocation’.

The IDF has released a map of the border area at the site of today’s skirmish clearly showing the Blue line, the border of Israel, the Israeli fence and the area of where Israeli troops were located.

Ha’aretz is now reporting UNIFIL confirms 2 key facts. The IDF was well within the Israeli side of the Blue Line when the Lebanese army attack and UNIFIL did receive notitifcation of the Israeli maintenance which it duly passed on to the Lebanese Army.

Milos Strugar, UNIFIL’s senior political adviser said that the IDF had “informed UNIFIL that it was going to conduct maintenance works” on the border, adding that while the Israeli unit had been “on the northern side of the border fence,” it was nonetheless “south of the international borderline.”

However, the UNIFIL official added that the information he had was “preliminary,” adding that he will look into the evidence “more thoroughly” later in the day.
“The situation became tense right away, with the Lebanon army also being there,” Strugar said, adding that UNIFIL forces had tried “to calm the situation and allow the IDF to work.”

Asserting the IDF’s claim that it had informed the Lebanese side of the planned border works, Strugar said that UNIFIL had received a message from the IDF “regarding these works, and we had passed that on to the Lebanese army.”

Ha’aretz is also carrying a report suggesting the Lebanese officer who gave the command to fire was a ‘lone’ wacko wolf.

Israel Defense Forces analysts believe that the Lebanese sniper fire at the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday, which killed Lt. Col. Dov Harari and seriously wounded Captain Ezra Lakia, was in fact an ambush planned by a Lebanese officer who was encouraged by his commanders.

Israel Defense Forces analysts believe that the Lebanese sniper fire at the Israel-Lebanon border on Tuesday, which killed Lt. Col. Dov Harari and seriously wounded Captain Ezra Lakia, was in fact an ambush planned by a Lebanese officer who was encouraged by his commanders. The exchange of fire began when Israeli soldiers approached the border in order to trim some bushes that had grown along the fence. The operation had been coordinated in advance with UNIFIL, which in turn informed the Lebanese army.

As in previous cases of such Israeli activity, the Lebanese army deployed soldiers to the area. After a round of yelling, unanswered by the Israeli troops, Lebanese snipers opened deliberate fire at the IDF observation post several hundred meters into Israel, the IDF said. Harari and Lakia had manned the observation post, and both sustained serious gunfire wounds.

According to information gathered by the IDF, the sniper fire was ordered by a commanding officer within the Lebanese army. The IDF has found no indication that the officer received an order to open fire, and believe that the decision was his alone. However, it is known that the particular officer was influenced by inciting remarks against Israel made by the top commanders of the Lebanese army in the recent past.

I’d be willing to accept the whole lone wacko wolf scenario except something still  really reeks. It turns out there was just happened to be a Reuters photographer on hand to witness the Lebanese side of the exchange wherein the soldiers were given the order to attack. Although, that still doesn’t distract from the lone wolf wacko scenario except….take a good look at where the Blue helmets are standing and ask yourself what is UNIFIL’s role? Acting as cover or shields while the Lebanese army snipers attack an Israeli officer well within the the border of Israel does not strike me as within the terms of their mandate. In fact, I would suggest these blue helmets have seriously compromised the mission they were tasked in carrying out.

The Israeli government needs to seek a very public explanation from the UNIFIL command.

It was a long weekend in Canada and you would think I would finally have a chance to sit down and comment about the million and one things going on in my mind. You’d be right, if I didn’t have a life. You see, my life, gets in a the way of blogging. I have things to do, things to sew, a language to learn and a whole host of societal obligations….not to mention house work or painting my flat with its 20 ft walls.

But here’s one thing to ponder before my full return to blogging – how do meet or greet the ‘other’ in daily life? It has a great deal to do with Barbara Kay’s recent column and the Brits – Christina Patterson’s latest.

Via Sassy Wire I found this reference to recent Barbara Kay post in the National Post. I am short on time but I hope to have a much longer response either this evening or tomorrow morning. Until then, let me just remind readers Barbara Kay has a has a history of axe grinding with the religious among Jews.. I suppose they don’t meet her litmus test for authentically Jewish.

I suppose it was just a matter of time before someone published this.

Although, I think I will wait for the Mearsheimer & Walt review before I read it.

h/t My Right World.

Give up? These countries are all tied for 8th place in the happy citizen index. Arutz Sheva.

Israelis are among the happiest people in the world, according to a new Gallup Poll published this week by Forbes magazine. Israel was tied with three other countries for eighth place, placing far ahead of the United States and Britain.

(…)Following the four Scandinavian countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden atop the list, the next three rankings were shared by Holland, Costa Rica and New Zealand, with only a percentage point putting them ahead of the four-way tie among Israel, Canada, Switzerland and Australia. All four of the latter tallied a 62 percent report of people whose lives are thriving. The United States, where only 57 percent of the population are happy, was in 14th place, tied with Australia. The United Kingdom was in 17th pace, with a score of only 54 percent.

Despite Finland’s high ranking, it has one of the highest suicide rates in the world, and Denmark’s alcohol consumption is among the ten highest in the world. On the other hand, Israel has one of the lowest suicide rates, as well as a high fertility rate, another indication that Israelis are happy. 

So its nice to know during my opt-out year I will be replacing one happy place with another happy place. Speaking of learning Hebrew, if you ever needed a daily exercise in humiliation, learning Hebrew is a sure fire way to go. And I haven’t even gotten to the point where I have misused the slang yet!

I have to admit I just don’t care about the census and feel its just another governmental intrusion into my private affairs. What language I chose to speak at home, how many people live in my home, their employment status/educational level, military status or the faith we practise (or not) is just not any of the federal government’s business. Neither is my ancestry or ethnic origins. All the feds need to know is my immigration status and the fact I pay my taxes when due. End of story.

I could blog about Canadian politics or the meltdown of the Obama-nation to our south. It just that it all blows for me right now as each side polarizes into absurdity and I find it just engages me less and less. North American politics has become so sporty – like a football game where everyone chooses sides and roots for their home team regardless of any other consideration. Ideas, integrity and principles are thrown aside for the sake of pragmatism in the quest to score the winning goal. Perhaps, it has always been like this and I have been wearing my rose-coloured glasses far too long.

So instead I want to mark a personal milestone. I’m a reader, my daughter is a reader, and my oldest son is a reader. We might even be called a family of readers except my youngest son rarely reads. It’s not that he can’t read, he just finds it boring beyond belief which quite frankly an attitude that completely baffles me is. I’ve tried just about every kind of book to engage him with to no avail…until two days ago when

I caught him reading for pleasure. And it was all purely by accident. I bought an English translation of a book by Israeli writer Etgar Keret called, ‘The Bus Driver who thought he was God & Other stories’. I am not a fan of short stories and avoid them much like one does to avoid swine flu. An acquaintance begged me to give him a chance and suggested I needed to read him to get a better grasp on Israeli pop culture.

I finally found one of his books at a used bookstore I regularly patronize. Let me say this, it wasn’t cheap even for a ‘used’ book. I bought it, brought it home, and read it in one sitting while I laughed and alternately squirmed under Keret’s prose. I knew my older son would appreciate how far Keret is willing to go to expose the thoughts of ordinary people doing often bizarre or irrations things for the most absurd reasons. Actually, reading Keret is kind of like sitting in G-d’s confessional booth. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to discover Keret has already written a story about G-d’s confessional booth.

Montana liked it and left it lying around the bathroom which is where Isaiah Sender found it. It was Isaiah Sender’s turn to clean the bathroom and he only gave it a quick read because he mistakenly thought it was a Captain Underpants novella he missed reading as child owing to the graphics on the cover. Or at least that’s his excuse when I found him reading it instead of cleaning. Apparently, the first story sucked him in and he’s stayed with it until it’s done. Now he wants more. Baruch HaShem, but did he have to pick an author whose books seem only to be published here at upscale prices? Anyhow, between Keret’s stories I thought I might try sneaking in a little Vonnegut.